4th Quarter 2018
Busy times sorry for the 4 month delay, so here goes
Marijuana stocks were a hit this late summer,
my picks were Tilray ($270 high; I got geedy)
Aurora Cannabis ($13 high). They're at lows presently
which makes for accumulation trades.
(Canada legalized Oct 17 for some provinces)
Dividend achievers are down as yields have risen.
Sold some names during the summer months.
Oil down at $66; UnEmployment down 3.9%, Inflation up 2.1%
Feds are waffling on the target of 2% inflation again, but have
indicated quarterly increases (3 this year) .
On a yearly basis wages were up 3.1%, as more people leave the
work force.
Hold close to cash reserves 30%.
Jun - Oct Dow DIA Yield up 1.9% S&P 500 down 0.83%
however the October massacre was
Dow DIA Yield down 5.7% S&P 500 down 7.2%
Oil production up year over year 11.2M
Energy stocks NRT, chinese NFEC, brazil CIG & CIG.C
natural gas UNL & UNG
Closer than ever to Washington DC as Midterms shows surprises.
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
2nd Quarter 2018: Calm Before the Storm
2nd Quarter 2018
Dividend achievers are the top pick for the quarter
Oil at $70; UnEmployment 3.9%, Inflation 1.9%
Feds are waffling on the target of 2% inflation,
bond prices have fallen and yields are up.
Holding close to cash reserves.
Jan - May Dow DIA Yield 0.20% S&P 500 0.10%
Oil production records continue, riding NRT
Closer than ever to Washington DC fiasco.
Dividend achievers are the top pick for the quarter
Oil at $70; UnEmployment 3.9%, Inflation 1.9%
Feds are waffling on the target of 2% inflation,
bond prices have fallen and yields are up.
Holding close to cash reserves.
Jan - May Dow DIA Yield 0.20% S&P 500 0.10%
Oil production records continue, riding NRT
Closer than ever to Washington DC fiasco.
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
The Markets are on Edge
Political Upheaval on Capitol Hill.
As we head into uncertainty over the Executive Branch (North Korea and Russia provocations of military might), the markets are preparing for a volatile
month of trading.
Beware of the Ides of March
Salvage your holdings, go to cash up to 55% or more if possible.
Cash/Bonds is King.
As we head into uncertainty over the Executive Branch (North Korea and Russia provocations of military might), the markets are preparing for a volatile
month of trading.
Beware of the Ides of March
Salvage your holdings, go to cash up to 55% or more if possible.
Cash/Bonds is King.
Friday, February 2, 2018
1st Qtr 2018 and Notice of Intent
1st Quarter 2018
Dividend achievers are the top pick for the quarter
Oil at $55; UnEmployment 4.2%, Inflation 1.7%
Feds are in great control to inch up the rates
Techs are changing the workforce even further.
Russia and Past transgressions will start
the impeachment process.
Markets have stability as this was expected.
***** February 2, 2018 UPDATE****** Russell 2000 Dn 2.0
6% S&P 500 Dn 2.12% Nasd Dn 1.96%
Pay and wage increases and Memo prompts market downturn
30 year Treasury Bond Index up 3%
Oil production records continue
New lows outpacing New highs for the week
Government shutdown and resignations very likley
{Deutsche Bank's chief strategist, Binky Chadha
notes that crude-oil prices are up nearly 60%
over the past seven months, the S&P 500 index
has climbed by about 32% since around November 2016,
while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 43%.
The dollar, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index ,
is down 9% over the past 13 months,
and the 10-year note yield is up about 76 basis points
over the past five months.}
Dividend achievers are the top pick for the quarter
Oil at $55; UnEmployment 4.2%, Inflation 1.7%
Feds are in great control to inch up the rates
Techs are changing the workforce even further.
Russia and Past transgressions will start
the impeachment process.
Markets have stability as this was expected.
***** February 2, 2018 UPDATE****** Russell 2000 Dn 2.0
6% S&P 500 Dn 2.12% Nasd Dn 1.96%
Pay and wage increases and Memo prompts market downturn
30 year Treasury Bond Index up 3%
Oil production records continue
New lows outpacing New highs for the week
Government shutdown and resignations very likley
{Deutsche Bank's chief strategist, Binky Chadha
notes that crude-oil prices are up nearly 60%
over the past seven months, the S&P 500 index
has climbed by about 32% since around November 2016,
while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 43%.
The dollar, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index ,
is down 9% over the past 13 months,
and the 10-year note yield is up about 76 basis points
over the past five months.}
4th Qtr 2017
4th Quarter 2017
What a backwards 3 months of Investing.
Hurricanes hit the Gulf and East coast - Oil prices rise less than 15%
North Korea fires missiles over Japan and near Guam - World markets move less than 2.5%
No Healthcare Reform/Repeal - Health stocks move south and stabilize
No Tax reform - yields are trending down
No Inflation - FEDs increase rates once, why?
Staying on course with the Dividend Achievers
Top Ten Stocks up 9 ( 3 less than 4% ; 2 more than 4% ; 1 more than 10% ; 3 more than 20%)
down 1 ( 1 less than 1%)
Dividend yields from 2.2% - 18.2%
Continue the trend, stay on the look out for more household debt and a rising VIX.
What a backwards 3 months of Investing.
Hurricanes hit the Gulf and East coast - Oil prices rise less than 15%
North Korea fires missiles over Japan and near Guam - World markets move less than 2.5%
No Healthcare Reform/Repeal - Health stocks move south and stabilize
No Tax reform - yields are trending down
No Inflation - FEDs increase rates once, why?
Staying on course with the Dividend Achievers
Top Ten Stocks up 9 ( 3 less than 4% ; 2 more than 4% ; 1 more than 10% ; 3 more than 20%)
down 1 ( 1 less than 1%)
Dividend yields from 2.2% - 18.2%
Continue the trend, stay on the look out for more household debt and a rising VIX.
3rd Qtr 2017
3rd Quarter 2017
Sell Equities
Fed rates increases stalling housing sector
(low inflation, immigration policies, divergent economics)
High multiples on level revenues; Market pull-back 10%
Bonds increasing in value, Oil finally heading south ($30s)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USHL5&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27747499092
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/highs-lows/summary
Sell Equities
Fed rates increases stalling housing sector
(low inflation, immigration policies, divergent economics)
High multiples on level revenues; Market pull-back 10%
Bonds increasing in value, Oil finally heading south ($30s)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USHL5&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27747499092
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/highs-lows/summary
2nd Qtr 2017
2nd Quarter 2017
Neil Angelino's newsletter wrote
Home Prices Climb in Unseasonable Winter
It has been an unseasonably hot winter in housing as home prices hike higher,
according to Clear Capital's recently released Home Data Index (HDI) report,
showing national quarterly home price growth at 0.9 percent.
Regional quarterly price growth, per the report, was mixed:
0.7 percent in the Northeast, an increase; 0.8 percent in the Midwest,
a decrease; and 1.0 percent in the South and West, unchanged.
Home prices in 16 of the top 50 largest metropolitan areas
- which contain one-third of the nation's housing stock -
have moved past bubble-era peaks.
The result, according to Clear Capital Vice President of Research and Analytics
Alex Villacorta, is a majority-shift toward positive equity.
"Following several rounds of healthy, peak-season summer growth,
winter gains thus far this season have remained relatively
healthy across much of the country," says Villacorta. "
February 2017
February 2017
New home sales rose 6% monthly and 12% year over year.
So let's start buying into the housing sectors.
Garden care will be a hot market again (15% run up)
Russia problems leading to foreign bond prices dropping and raising yields
Keep an eye out for South Africa currency fluctuations.
Oil back in the $50s, a mystery with the glut and production levels
watch for the falling knife.
Continued theme
Short the Dow Industrial, Long the VIX USA government problems ahead
New home sales rose 6% monthly and 12% year over year.
So let's start buying into the housing sectors.
Garden care will be a hot market again (15% run up)
Russia problems leading to foreign bond prices dropping and raising yields
Keep an eye out for South Africa currency fluctuations.
Oil back in the $50s, a mystery with the glut and production levels
watch for the falling knife.
Continued theme
Short the Dow Industrial, Long the VIX USA government problems ahead
1st Qtr 2017
1st Quarter 2017
Con show is over(Sales pitch Trump), there's trouble in the Big House( Congress),
World markets becomes troubled (Protests in the streets)
Short the Dow Industrial, Long the VIX USA government problems ahead
Hacking stocks increase, Oil on the (decrease $30s)
future new tech (Cam less) adding hp/mpg to 2020 autos/trucks (major performance change)
Con show is over(Sales pitch Trump), there's trouble in the Big House( Congress),
World markets becomes troubled (Protests in the streets)
Short the Dow Industrial, Long the VIX USA government problems ahead
Hacking stocks increase, Oil on the (decrease $30s)
future new tech (Cam less) adding hp/mpg to 2020 autos/trucks (major performance change)
4th Qtr 2016
4th Quarter 2016
No increase by FOMC stalling. holding the brake creating over-brought market until 2017.
Oil creeping back to $50, uncertain on direction Russia, OPEC making enemies.
Buy companies in the Baken area only.
Electronics semiconductos play until end of year; Military buying spree
ishares MSCI index fund buying, 3rd week in Oct ;selling after Jan 31, 2017 dividend/yield play
No increase by FOMC stalling. holding the brake creating over-brought market until 2017.
Oil creeping back to $50, uncertain on direction Russia, OPEC making enemies.
Buy companies in the Baken area only.
Electronics semiconductos play until end of year; Military buying spree
ishares MSCI index fund buying, 3rd week in Oct ;selling after Jan 31, 2017 dividend/yield play
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