Friday, January 5, 2024

1st Quarter 2024: War across the regions and the case for inflation

2024 1st Quarter: War across the regions and the case for inflation
 Olde Business:

Employment numbers in the USA stay strong,

August 2023: the American economy added 187,000  jobs in the month of August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%

September 2023: 
the American economy added 336,000  jobs in the month of September, and the unemployment rate held at 3.8%

October 2023: the American economy added 150,000  jobs in the month of October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%

November 2023: the American economy added 199,000  jobs in the month of November, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.7%

December 2023: the American economy added 216,000  jobs in the month of December, and the unemployment rate held at 3.7%

CPI Inflation 2022/2023

January 2023:      6.4 percent
February 2023:    6.0 percent
March 2023:         5.1 percent

April  2023:           4.9 percent
May   2023:             4 percent
June  2023:              3 percent

July  2023:             3.2 percent
August  2023:        3.7 percent
September 2023:    3.7 percent

October 2023:        3.2 percent 
November 2023:     3.1 percent
December 2023: 



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New Business:

1:Russian president Vladimir Putin said that his forces would intensify
strikes on military targets in Ukraine, after an unprecedented Ukrainian
attack over the weekend on the Russian city of Belgorod.

2:Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy told the Economist
that the notion that Russia was winning the nearly two-year-old war was only a “feeling” and Ukraine’s priorities in 2024 included hitting Russia’s strengths in Crimea

3:On 7 October Hamas launched thousands of rockets into Israel,
and gunmen broke through security barriers in the worst breach
of the country’s defences in five decades – 1,200 Israelis were killed
and more than 200 were taken hostage.

4:The response from Israel was swift and brutal, with the government
promising a “mighty vengeance” against Hamas, vowing to destroy the militant group altogether. In the months since the attack, the Israeli military
has unleashed one of the heaviest conventional bombing campaigns in history, according to one expert. More than 20,400 people have been killed, including nearly 8,000 children.[courtesy of https://www.theguardian.com/]

Expect the Lords of War to ramp up production of armaments.
These corporations are the greed and corrupt destroyer of life, expect their stocks to soar.

Saab AB, General Atomics, Lockheed Martin, Textron Inc,
Thales Group, BAE Systems Plc, Elbit Systems Ltd,
AeroVironment, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, Northrop Grumman
(makers of drones)

-------------------------------------- Dividends News 2024 ------------------------------------
Increasing accumulation of AT&T , Seagate, Walgreens Boot Alliance, and 5% Oil Patch Services Companies, adding Cornerstone Fund and PEY again.

Inflation will tick up and level off at high level.
The El Nino weather pattern has caused farming havoc around the world. As California wine crops become become bountiful and near perfection, the water storms are a relief for the agriculture industry, Europe continues to go thru flooding events with prices will cause inflation to rise. Commodities like meat and grain will also participate in the rally as 'Cause n Effect' issues of climate change wreak havoc on the globe. War and a China usage uptick will cause winter blend pricing of oil and minerals to face an increase in pricing as Middle East strife and OPEC disputes disrupt the flow and supply in late spring.

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The New Year brings increased corporate pricing and minimum wages, as demand for workers remain high and the balance sheets of workers comes down to Pre-pandemic levels. As usage of AI driven initiatives fail to deliver, corporations will slim down and close these unprofitable operations.


REITs and commercial entities continue to pressure bank earnings and real estate pricing with a reduction in inventory and affordability.

LONGS: Military based corporations