Tuesday, July 27, 2021

3rd Quarter 2021 Update: The Everything Bubble David Haggith - The Bubble is bursting...................

Update July 27, 2021

We have witnessed a DRAMATIC crackdown of China's tech and innovative companies in new decrees and legislation. This have given us a -15% downturn in the Golden Dragon Index , not seen since the 2008 debacle. We here are expecting a total downturn of close to -25% in these and other stocks related to China's crackdown. When China Sneezes the world gets the Flu. $$$ will be sucked out the US Markets at a pace, that will set records.


In the coming days expect to see the start of the US bubble bursting in tech and other areas, that depend on China's sales and manufacturing. The Trade War is back on, and with a roar!


Sars-CoV2 will also be a player in the coming days as roll backs in our social, work and sleep lives are commenced. The unemployment data was already showing signs of a plateau inching its way back, upwards not downwards. India and Brasil we fear, and having talk about on reddit.com (https://www.reddit.com/user/jdd7690) are in the crosshairs of a major upheavel as Sars-CoV2 devastates the landscape in the medical, industrial and metal/commodity sectors.


We are suggesting a move to CASH/BITCOIN elements of +50% to save profits and build on the losses due to US Markets thru Digital Currency inflows.

Thursday, July 8, 2021

3rd Quarter 2021: The Everything Bubble - David Haggith

 The Everything Bubble - David Haggith

 

''This time, the Fed has, on one side, created so much dependency on FedMed throughout the economy, including just about every market out there - stocks, bonds, housing, you name it - that it cannot end the drugs without creating massive withdrawal in all markets at the same time - the catastrophic collapse of the Everything Bubble.'' - David Haggith 

 

''  1.Excess in one direction, will lead to opposite excess in the other direction;

2. Federal Reserve equity heroin fueling each bubble.

3.Fed balance sheet VS S&P 500  chart from 15 yrs mirrors each other!

4. $580Bil in flown in Global Equity Funds in 6 months, more annualized inflows than in 21 years before, Combined.  '' 

 - Doug Kass Seabreeze Partners , President

 

 

Olde News

Brazil is looking at a 3% reduction of 6 million deaths and India a 2% reduction of 16 million deaths from the variants of Sars-CoV2. Full control of a ''vaccine'' or cure is years away, so Influenza will become the small sister to this YEARLY population reduction disease.

                            Brasil                       India

Jun 2020              59k                           14k

Nov 2020            173k                         75k

Dec 2020             210k                        140k

April 2021           340k                        166k

May 2021            400k                        215k   

June 2021            528k                        400k

 

As this WAR plays out the stable parts of the world will undergo INFLATION from the supplychain logistics FIASCO the Sars-CoV2 variant have created.

We reccommend the INFLATION hedges noted into 

 Shippers on land, Shippers on sea, Container leasing, Terminal port companies, and warehouse logistics companies.

Oil and byproducts are headed south after a rush to judgement; 

{U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years }

****April 2020 demand plunge  pushed us to $0 per barrel for WTI and futures****

Natural Gas is the elephant in the room, new technology and conversion engines bring more 

Clean Energy to the consumer in the home and on the road. 

 

 Nuevo News

Metals and the Inflation Threat

Uranium continues to lead in this market scenario 

UROY, UUUU, UEC 

Favorites: DHY, DHF

 

 

Global Threats

Cyber threats, Hacked accounts and Ransomware are building momentum

around the world. The Reset the World mentality will cause disruptions and

short term pain to the Corporate and Finance sectors.

Major Players: USA, China, North Korea, EU/Urkaine, Russia , South America



To Get Investments: https://sites.google.com/site/jopirelinc/invest

Monday, May 3, 2021

2nd Quarter 2021: The Pandemic Double Take

 

2nd Quarter 2021: The Pandemic Double Take

Pandemic double take , double take:

As the world issues support to its poorest neighbor, the results are coming in a tad bit late. The population control virus has established a foothold in South America and South Asia.

Brazil is looking at a 3% reduction of 6 million deaths and India a 2% reduction of 16 million deaths from the variants of Sars-CoV2. Full control of a ''vaccine'' or cure is years away, so Influenza will become the small sister to this YEARLY population reduction disease.

{https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/mmqv6f/how_to_conduct_a_genocide_during_a_pandemic/}

                            Brasil                       India

Jun 2020              59k                           14k

Nov 2020            173k                         75k

Dec 2020             210k                        140k

April 2021           340k                        166k

May 2021            400k                        215k   

The Mathematics reveal the truth and the future for now 05/03/2021..........................................................................?



 

As air travel remains somewhat restrictive the neighbors of these regions can not escape the blowback from the ''managed'' spread of misinformation and healthcare inadequacy not improved upon from the Italy/France/Uk and New York ''experiences'' in virus control and messaging.

As this WAR plays out the stable parts of the world will undergo INFLATION from the supplychain logistics FIASCO the Sars-CoV2 variant have created.

We reccommend the INFLATION hedges noted into 

THE MARKET

 

 

ONE year AGO 

>>>>Update 01/08/2020  US and Iran playing chicken, while North Korea & Russia  wait for their moment of glory.
>>>>Update 03/09/2020 North Korea flexing muscle, Iran standing tall (even with Convid-19) keeping Testing non-existent

>>>>My Movements
As I talk to CVS managers and Auto part managers, watching Shiptracking.com movements, and listening to West Coast port talk , the Writing Is On The Wall!

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

ONE year LATER

>>>>>05/03/2021  Iran said this weekend that there’s agreement on lifting some US sanctions.“The short answer is there is no deal now,” Sullivan said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday. US diplomats “will keep working at that over the coming weeks to try to arrive at a mutual return” to the nuclear deal .The US isn’t negotiating directly with Iran at the talks, which have been held in Vienna, but is participating in discussions led by the other parties to the treaty.'' courtesy of Boston Globe By Tony Czuczka Bloomberg

WHICH MEANS DEALS ARE BEING CUT AND DRIED OUT!

>>>>>>05/03/2021 "I hope that North Korea will take the opportunity to engage diplomatically and to see if there are ways to move forward toward the objective of complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula," he said after talks with his UK counterpart Dominic Raab in London.  "It is, I think, up to North Korea to decide whether it wants to engage or not on that basis."  courtesy of the EconomicTimes

WHICH MEANS MORE PRESSURE AND INCREASED TENSIONS, AS THE PANDEMIC SPREADS IN NORTH KOREA

 

 

"I hope that North Korea will take the opportunity to engage diplomatically and to see if there are ways to move forward toward the objective of complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula," he said after talks with

"I hope that North Korea will take the opportunity to engage diplomatically and to see if there are ways to move forward toward the objective of complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula," he said after talks with his UK counterpart Dominic Raab in London.

"It is, I think, up to North Korea to decide whether it wants to engage or not on that basis."

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/us-hopes-nkorea-will-engage-diplomatically-blinken/articleshow/82375546.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
"I hope that North Korea will take the opportunity to engage diplomatically and to see if there are ways to move forward toward the objective of complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula," he said after talks with his UK counterpart Dominic Raab in London.

"It is, I think, up to North Korea to decide whether it wants to engage or not on that basis."

"I hope that North Korea will take the opportunity to engage diplomatically and to see if there are ways to move forward toward the objective of complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula," he said after talks with his UK counterpart Dominic Raab in London.

"It is, I think, up to North Korea to decide whether it wants to engage or not on that basis."

"I hope that North Korea will take the opportunity to engage diplomatically and to see if there are ways to move forward toward the objective of complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula," he said after talks with his UK counterpart Dominic Raab in London.

"It is, I think, up to North Korea to decide whether it wants to engage or not on that basis."

"I hope that North Korea will take the opportunity to engage diplomatically and to see if there are ways to move forward toward the objective of complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula," he said after talks with his UK counterpart Dominic Raab in London.

"It is, I think, up to North Korea to decide whether it wants to engage or not on that basis."

"I hope that North Korea will take the opportunity to engage diplomatically and to see if there are ways to move forward toward the objective of complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula," he said after talks with his UK counterpart Dominic Raab in London.

"It is, I think, up to North Korea to decide whether it wants to engage or not on that basis."

"I hope that North Korea will take the opportunity to engage diplomatically and to see if there are ways to move forward toward the objective of complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula," he said after talks with his UK counterpart Dominic Raab in London.

"It is, I think, up to North Korea to decide whether it wants to engage or not on that basis."

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                                               THE MARKETS

BTC-USD stumbles and continues its race up the Hill

,not seeing a staight road ahead, a blowout back to 35-45K levels

Staying the course with trusted Ethereum..............................................

 

Again  TSLA - 705 May 1, 2021

{Telsa is not ''who we thought they were''. (aka RichRebuilds-youtube.com). Accidents in an unproven system  Payment system to recharge/parts/order cars - Network Marketing Pyramid} 

TSLA - 865 Feb 2, 2021

Once again we move $$$ into dividend/bond/treasury funds  DHY, PEY, DHF, WIW, WIA as secure havens for cash become the 'new' thing.

since       Feb 2021      May 2020
DHY         +6%                +35%
PEY          +17%              +53%
DHF         +5%                 +34%
WIW        +0.5%              +21%
WIA         +2%                 +20%


Metals and the Inflation Threat

 Hyperinflation - is a term to describe rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. While inflation is a measure of the pace of rising prices for goods and services, hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month

May 3, 2021 3- month moves

SBGL      +61%

NG          +2%

GV         +65%

IMPUY  +37%

SVM       -11%

UUUU   +35%

UEC      +80%

Monday, February 1, 2021

1st Quarter 2021: Stuck on Twenty-Twenty

 Olde Business: {Disclaimer: As the narrative of the economy in a V shaped recovery is proven wrong{boiler room crowd}, and the Billions that were dropped in market makers hands, the balloon will now finally pop }

Shorts in 10/2020 are in disaster mode

AIG    American International Group   +34%

EQH   AXA Equitable Holdings  +26%

MET  MetLife   +24%

 ALL  Allstate Insurance Group   +17%

PGR  Progressive Insurance Group  -3.5%

TRV Travelers Group  +20%

still tells me that FEDMEDs have boosted their reserves and outstanding contracts, but will this 3 month fumble continue into February as new govt regulations force the retracement back to 09/2020 level {pre-election}.Watching closely for volume changes and outflows.


KBWR  +43%

KRE  +42%

Banking stocks were boosted by the election results and boosted by the senate runoffs. I believe a reversal will head them back to Summer levels as regulations changes and buybacks bring down the hidden balance sheet holes and as dwindling employment numbers go southbound in the next two months.{infections and lockdowns persist}


New Business: {Disclaimer: As the narrative of the economy in a V shaped recovery is proven wrong{boiler room crowd}, and the Billions that were dropped in market makers hands, the balloon will now finally pop }

With a mutation of Sars-Cov2 across the globe, in major markets USA,Europe,Brazil, I am forecasting a return to stocks that were hit hard in February/March 2020

Shorts since mid Feb

JETS  IYT  XTN  KORU  DIA since 2018 at 198 off by 40%    }



Once again we move $$$ into dividend/bond/treasury funds  DHY, PEY, DHF, WIW, WIA as secure havens for cash become the 'new' thing.

since October 2020
DHY  +7%
PEY  +17%
DHF +7.5%
WIW  +7.8%
WIA  +6.9%

Let's TALK BTC - Bitcoin, I made a call in October 2020 and now :
BTC  +240% with a ridiculous 108% in 1 month performance on 1/08/2021 alone.
ETH +236%
My perference for Ethereum, will continue as stability of money flows are disrupted by payment platform and internet network hacking and infiltrations

The Reset is in Phase One

 Congrats to the FanBoys/FanGirls

BTC-USD is coming to the rescue

Stay the course..............................................

Sears Holdings

Blackberry

General Motors


Amazon and Walmart are not the future, but enslaving slumlords of anti-wage {living wages}, anti-union {benefits & protections}and anti-human {less automation-non robot}

Apple and Samsung are Elite Tools of Big Brother

Telsa is not ''who we thought they were''. (aka RichRebuilds-youtube.com).            Accidents in an unproven system                                                                                Payment system to recharge/parts/order cars - Network Marketing Pyramid




Friday, November 6, 2020

3rd Quarter 2020: FEDMEDS are pushed again to Lobbyist/Financial Groups


  As territories close down/re-trench , the FEDs have slowed down their Balance Sheets slowly, and the 2nd round of PPP loans have been FINALLY offered to 'real' Small Businesses.





Continued shorting of the KBRE KBW index
The Airline industry continues to circle the airport at reduced stacking levels every 20 days as the small uptick in travel is rethinked for closer, more secure, car travel destinations. The outlook for a reversal in an uptick is increasing as California, Texas, and Florida take steps to heal their hemmoraging patients on the operating room table. West coast , Cental and Southeast coast travel are very crucial to this industry for revenue.

July 7 2020
“Last week, the Treasury Department announced that American Airlines, Frontier Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, Sky West Airlines, and Spirit Airlines have signed letters of intent setting out the terms on which Treasury is prepared to extend loans under the CARES Act.  We welcome the news that Alaska Airlines, Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines have now also signed letters of intent. 

 It requires borrowers to provide warrants, equity interests, or senior debt instruments as appropriate taxpayer compensation.  Participating borrowers must also commit to certain requirements under the CARES Act to maintain employment levels and limit employee compensation, dividends, and share repurchases.

In other Developments
 Upheavel at Medicare and Social Security, as the accountant's tool for measurment rises 15% in one year. Meaning a runaway train is gaining speed as it heads into the train station. What is need is an administration with a mandate to protect the system w/o regard for political and its lobbyist ramifications.

Results were mainly due to :
       The excise tax on high-cost, employer-sponsored group health plans (commonly referred to as the Cadillac tax) was repealed. 
     
        The Trustees changed several of their long-run assumptions in light of new analysis and data:  
          The total fertility rate was reduced from 2.0 to 1.95 births per woman.
          Consumer price inflation was reduced from 2.6 to 2.4 percent. 
          The real interest rate was reduced from 2.5 to 2.3 percent. 
          The disability incidence rate was reduced from 5.2 to 5.0 per 1000 covered workers.

The 75-year (2020-2094) actuarial deficit of the Social Security trust funds increased from 2.78 to 3.21 percent of taxable payroll since the 2019 reports. The 75-year actuarial balance is a summary measure that calculates the difference between the projected income and the projected costs of the trust funds as a percentage of taxable payroll.

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

4th Quarter 2020: October 2020 surprise to wipe the data clean and format the New Deal acceptable to the Masses

 Waited a long while to let the dogs of summer ravage the mindset of the Pigs at the Trough. This upside DOWN world of greed and vice has reach its tipping point. 

Analyst , CEOs, Market Makers, and Credit Agencies are set to burn in the dirty oily slime of their souls.

As the magic of rising stock prices among the decreasing revenue streams and employee counts mounted, the Demons of Wall Street pillaged the pensions and 401k of America.

Well the piper has come to direct  the scum to the sewers and the darkness of the void.



In the past 4 months precious metals has been in play and rewarded its holders. As the October surprise sweeps thru the world, Insurers the world over will be under tremendous pressure.

Shorting for 50% drops across the board

AIG    American International Group

EQH   AXA Equitable Holdings

MET  MetLife

 ALL  Allstate Insurance Group

PGR  Progressive Insurance Group

TRV Travelers Group

Convert long stocks to cash, look into BTC and others for 40 percent cash reserves as the storm sweeps into February 2021.


Update on SHORTS KBWR & KRE

KBWR up 15% 

KRE up 22% 

No summer doldrums, hefty fines, increasing delinquencies or cash hoarding to stop the corporate overlords from filling their guts, but seeing the cancer growing anew and will ride this boat down to 60%, a 80% turnaround.