1st Quarter 2020 Political Stalmate Part 1

Capitol Hill: Laws are Meant to be Broken, There's nothing like a Washington DC Trial

David Haggith

Contrarian

''No, nothing irrational here folks. No irrational exuberance anywhere! After all, how can things be irrational when everyone shares the same delusion? That makes the delusion the new normal. And I'm the oddball who says the emperor is not only naked, but also he has no skin! He is a zombie who is only surviving by eating his own flesh.''

Back to the Markets

Marijuana is UP in Smoke. I don't see a turn around any time in 2020.

Nonfarm payrolls in the US for the last quarter were stable, wage growth has slowed back to low levels. States have basically increased their minimum wage payroll laws.

Precious metals are still a buy: SVM , KGC, SBGL  and IMPUY

Silver is a new play, Palladium continues to be in demand 

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac slowly picking up steam as deadlines approach, accumulation territory now.

Returning back to down and out, out of favor European Bank stocks: I like Greece again and other eurobanks as history cycles itself.

Update 01/08/2020  US and Iran playing chicken, while North Korea & Russia  wait for their moment of glory.

1st Quarter 2020 Update will adjust as situation Arises

The Emperor and the Economy have No Clothes

Question on Quora: Should I buy Treasury Bonds now?
Yes, for the next two months, March and April. As a TON of debt issues come due from all over worldwide, not just from the USA, there has been a scramble to get liquidity to hide the truth.
From the FedMeds to Trade War to CoronaVirus - the markets are prime for the reckoning it
justly deserves.

David Haggith

Contrarian

There is the key. Market valuations, as I have been pointing out far longer than Citi, were stretched far beyond what our tenuous global economy or business statistics merit. That leaves a market that has lot of potential room to fall. On top of that, central banks have already used up most of their pharmacy. They don't have a lot of medicine left to use that hasn't already passed its sell-by date.
It is the senseless things of this world that sometimes knock sense into the high and mighty whose hubris causes them to believe they cannot fall. In this case, the tiny COVID-19 virus (coronavirus) is bringing down a global house of cards long perched to fall - locks, stocks, and barrels of oil.


My Movements
As I talk to CVS managers and Auto part managers, watching Shiptracking.com movements, and listening to West Coast port talk , the Writing Is On The Wall!

Shorts since mid Feb
JETS
IYT
XTN
KORU
DIA since 2018 at 198 off by 40% 

Starting in March
DNK

Storms hits Market

In the coming week(s) I am sensing a disruption in the markets :
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4305742-market-volatility-bulletin-short-vx-futures-positioning-time-record-okay

When IPOs, Gold, and Manufacturing turn sour on this economy the seeds of our discontent come to fruitation as Watergate II and Wikileaks erupts into the economies of the world.

4th Quarter 2019 The Sheep Get Slaughtered

We Finally Reach Destiny
Again    Reading for the Masses
Political manuevers and Split politics driving tensions higher, leading to America's
downturn. Faith in government and governence push markets to edge.
The Emperor (USA) has no clothes. SHOUT OUT TO

David Haggith

Contrarian

''No, nothing irrational here folks. No irrational exuberance anywhere! After all, how can things be irrational when everyone shares the same delusion? That makes the delusion the new normal. And I'm the oddball who says the emperor is not only naked, but also he has no skin! He is a zombie who is only surviving by eating his own flesh.''

Back to the Markets

Marijuana/CBD  today hasn't paid off, Stocks have tanked to -60% levels

ACB , TLRY WTER haven't seen any outside offers, positive legislation or earnings boosts.

I love the VIIX ($10) at present levels, accumulation in process, hoping for $20 selloff levels.

 The Fed has no clothes, the fox is in the pigeon coop.

(Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 130 thousand in August of 2019, following a downwardly revised 159 thousand in July and below market expectations of 158 thousand. Employment in federal government rose, largely reflecting the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census.)

Precious metals buys: SVM , PALDF, KGC

Silver is a new play, Palladium continues to be in demand and Gold is a late entry into the government shakeup playing out.

More picks in ad-based companies developing; paypal link at:

 https://sites.google.com/site/jopirelinc/invest

Looking into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on the lastest Bloomberg report about capital cushions being boosted by billions allowing shareholders to reap benefits and for the companies to prevent big losses

Update 10/01/2019  ISM manufacturing index at 47.8 for September 2019 as outlook wanes toward recession. This is the lowest since June 2009 , a 10 year gap. 

3rd Quarter 2019 Where's the Beef

Political manuevers and Split politics driving tenses higher, leading to America's
downturn. Faith in government and governence push markets to edge.
The Emperor (USA) has no clothes. SHOUT OUT TO

David Haggith

Contrarian

''No, nothing irrational here folks. No irrational exuberance anywhere! After all, how can things be irrational when everyone shares the same delusion? That makes the delusion the new normal. And I'm the oddball who says the emperor is not only naked, but also he has no skin! He is a zombie who is only surviving by eating his own flesh.''

The VIIX (S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures index ) looks good at this point $12.00, now at 9.8 , as it rises to $18.00 accumulation will begin.

Marijuana still on the minds of morally corrupt governements , Virginia, Georgia and Florida expand growing or sales of products. CBD is the key to success.
Last time:Alkaine Water stalled and in a dive looking for a buyer
maybe. (?? 10% return)
Currently: Alkaine Water has risen 3% from $1.70 to $2.20 and back down to $1.75

Sold off PAYS and GOL; looking at new tech Technology offerings.
Tilray is definitely hopping to $58 price target currently trending around $47

Hearing political headwinds for Trump roaring from Wikileaks.
Election results were altered resulting in MAGA

Holding small cash reserves 5% until end of July 2019
Switch to 50% cash reserves as China slowdown develops
and tariff numbers come trickling in.

Info copyright to https://content.rwbaird.com/RWB/Content/PDF/Insights/Quarterly-Market-Chart-Book.pdf
Update on 2nd Quarter results
Yield curve still inverted; recession is coming
S&P 500 up 4.3%

2nd Quarter 2019: Storm Plummets the Land

2nd Quarter 2019

Marijuana stocks trending lower after US States hold off on legalization.
Aurora Cannabis ($8 now) clawing its way thru Pharma & Beverage
investments 100% to around $11/sh.
Alkaine Water stalled and in a dive looking for a buyer
maybe. (?? 10% return)


Sold 65% Communications T (AT&T), 100% V (Verizon)
75% STX (Seagate), 100% CUBE (Cube storage)
100% AXU (Alexco Resources),

Picks for Spring are CPTA, GAIN, GECC
and SUNS (email to know why)

Hold close to cash reserves 30%.
Dow up 10.2%, S&P up 12.3%
Nasdaq up 16.5%
China showdown on tap to rattle markets in May 2019


Hearings and subpoenas are scheduled as Mueller report pours
lighter fuel on sparks.

1st Quarter 2019 Subpoenas Delivered

1st Quarter 2019

 Marijuana stocks hit there lows this December
Aurora Cannabis ($5 now) looks to bounce back after earnings
100% to around $13/sh.
Added Alkaine Water as a blow out (?? 50% return)


Locking in on Communications T (AT&T), chinese NFEC,
brazil CIG & CIG.C and Blackrock funds.
Not looking good for extreme cold weather
so natural gas UNL & UNG will stay down 15% even
after December 2018 collapse.

Sold losing names and accumulated dividend leaders.

Most stocks down 18% during December rout.

Hold close to cash reserves 50%.
Dow 21,000 on target as
slowdown in China picks up steam.


Closer than ever to Washington DC as Investigations
lead to resignations and controversy.