1st Quarter 2024: War across the regions and the case for inflation

2024 1st Quarter: War across the regions and the case for inflation
 Olde Business:

Employment numbers in the USA stay strong,

August 2023: the American economy added 187,000  jobs in the month of August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%

September 2023: the American economy added 336,000  jobs in the month of September, and the unemployment rate held at 3.8%

October 2023: the American economy added 150,000  jobs in the month of October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%

November 2023: the American economy added 199,000  jobs in the month of November, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.7%

December 2023: the American economy added 216,000  jobs in the month of December, and the unemployment rate held at 3.7%

CPI Inflation 2022/2023

January 2023:      6.4 percent
February 2023:    6.0 percent
March 2023:         5.1 percent

April  2023:           4.9 percent

May   2023:             4 percent

June  2023:              3 percent

July  2023:             3.2 percent
August  2023:        3.7 percent
September 2023:    3.7 percent

October 2023:        3.2 percent 

November 2023:     3.1 percent

December 2023: 



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New Business:

1:Russian president Vladimir Putin said that his forces would intensify
strikes on military targets in Ukraine, after an unprecedented Ukrainian
attack over the weekend on the Russian city of Belgorod.

2:Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy told the Economist
that the notion that Russia was winning the nearly two-year-old war was only a “feeling” and Ukraine’s priorities in 2024 included hitting Russia’s strengths in Crimea

3:On 7 October Hamas launched thousands of rockets into Israel,
and gunmen broke through security barriers in the worst breach
of the country’s defences in five decades – 1,200 Israelis were killed
and more than 200 were taken hostage.

4:The response from Israel was swift and brutal, with the government
promising a “mighty vengeance” against Hamas, vowing to destroy the militant group altogether. In the months since the attack, the Israeli military
has unleashed one of the heaviest conventional bombing campaigns in history, according to one expert. More than 20,400 people have been killed, including nearly 8,000 children.[courtesy of https://www.theguardian.com/]

Expect the Lords of War to ramp up production of armaments.
These corporations are the greed and corrupt destroyer of life, expect their stocks to soar.

Saab AB, General Atomics, Lockheed Martin, Textron Inc,
Thales Group, BAE Systems Plc, Elbit Systems Ltd,
AeroVironment, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, Northrop Grumman
(makers of drones)

-------------------------------------- Dividends News 2024 ------------------------------------

Increasing accumulation of AT&T , Seagate, Walgreens Boot Alliance, and 5% Oil Patch Services Companies, adding Cornerstone Fund and PEY again.

Inflation will tick up and level off at high level.
The El Nino weather pattern has caused farming havoc around the world. As California wine crops become become bountiful and near perfection, the water storms are a relief for the agriculture industry, Europe continues to go thru flooding events with prices will cause inflation to rise. Commodities like meat and grain will also participate in the rally as 'Cause n Effect' issues of climate change wreak havoc on the globe. War and a China usage uptick will cause winter blend pricing of oil and minerals to face an increase in pricing as Middle East strife and OPEC disputes disrupt the flow and supply in late spring.

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The New Year brings increased corporate pricing and minimum wages, as demand for workers remain high and the balance sheets of workers comes down to Pre-pandemic levels. As usage of AI driven initiatives fail to deliver, corporations will slim down and close these unprofitable operations.


REITs and commercial entities continue to pressure bank earnings and real estate pricing with a reduction in inventory and affordability.

LONGS: Military based corporations

4th Quarter 2023: Feds Twist an Ankle doing an Head Fake

 Olde Business:

Employment numbers in the USA stay strong,
April 2023:  the American economy added 253,000 jobs in the month of April, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%

May 2023:the American economy added 339,000 jobs in the month of May, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%

June 2023: the American economy added 209,000  jobs in the month of June, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%

July 2023: the American economy added 209,000  jobs in the month of July, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%

August 2023: the American economy added 187,000  jobs in the month of August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%

September 2023: the American economy added 336,000  jobs in the month of September, and the unemployment rate held at 3.8%

October 2023: the American economy added 150,000  jobs in the month of October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%

CPI Inflation 2022/2023

October:             7.7 percent
November:            7.1 percent
December 2022:   6.5 percent

January 2023:      6.4 percent
February 2023:    6.0 percent
March 2023:         5.1 percent

April  2023:           4.9 percent

May   2023:             4 percent

June  2023:              3 percent

July  2023:             3.2 percent
August  2023:        3.7 percent
September 2023:    3.7 percent

October 2023:        3.2 percent  

3rd Quarter 2023: Wake Me Up When September Ends; taking a break will be back for the 4th qtr

 Olde Business:

Employment numbers in the USA stay strong,
April 2023:  the American economy added 253,000 jobs in the month of April, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%

May 2023:the American economy added 339,000 jobs in the month of May, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%

June 2023: the American economy added 209,000  jobs in the month of June, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%

July 2023: the American economy added 209,000  jobs in the month of July, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%

August 2023: the American economy added 187,000  jobs in the month of August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%

CPI Inflation 2022/2023

October:             7.7 percent
November:         7.1 percent
December 2022: 6.5 percent

January 2023:    6.4 percent
February 2023: 6.0 percent
March 2023:      5.1 percent

April  2023:       4.9 percent

May   2023:       4 percent

June  2023:        3 percent

July  2023:        3.2 percent
August  2023:   3.7 percent

2nd Quarter 2023: FedMeds was using and dealing, banks fail and California gives Inflation a Home Run Ball

 Olde Business:
Employment numbers in the USA stay strong,
January 2023:  the American economy added 517,000 jobs in the month of January, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%

February 2023:the American economy added 311,000 jobs in the month of February, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.6%

March 2023: the American economy added 235,000  jobs in the month of March, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%

CPI Inflation 2022/2023
October: 7.7 percent
November: 7.1 percent
December 2022: 6.5 percent

January 2023:  6.4 percent
February 2023: 6.0 percent
March 2023:     coming April 14 

Wall Street Casino Markets 2022/2023
                        1st                        2nd                        3rd                        4th                  2023  1st

Nasdaq 100   -9.6                        -22.7                     -3.9                        -1.8                      +16.8

S&P 500        -5.2                        -16.6                     -5.2                        +6.4                     +7       

DJIA              -4.5                        -11.4                     -6.5                        +14.9                   +0.4

 

 

 

New Business:

 Elites in the Tower of Federal Reserve Drug Dealing were using the same Drugs fed to their Customers:

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s district oversaw the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history.
In a 2021 review, the Fed identified significant vulnerabilities in the bank’s containment of risk.
In July 2022, Silicon Valley Bank received a closer look known as a full supervisory review, which rated the bank deficient for governance and controls.
The Federal Reserve of San Francisco met with top officials at the bank to address the lack of accessible cash and the potential risks posed by rising interest rates. Former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker sat on the board of directors at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco from January 2019 until the day of the bank’s collapse

The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raised significant questions about the Fed’s bank supervision and its failure to act more forcefully on problems it had previously identified.
The Federal Reserve of San Francisco, a regional entity that supervised Silicon Valley Bank, slapped the bank with six citations, including a note on the bank's failure to retain enough accessible cash for a potential downturn.

 Back in JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon speaking at a conference sponsored by AllianceBernstein Holdings, said that the U.S. economy is facing a "hurricane" as the Federal Reserve continues its process of normalizing interest rates. "Right now, it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine,"
Dimon told the conference. "Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road, coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy... or Andrew or something like that. And you got to brace yourself."

reported by Steve Liesman, via CNBC  and Brian Sozzi , via yahoo!Finance

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 Forthcoming after all carnage and loss of capital in the crypto space, the collapsing housing market, home valuation normalizing, and a wealth of Wall Street ''companies'' trading at nose bleed levels, there is the coming crisis of commercial real estate.
Corporate tenants are scaling back, higher interest rates are hurting valuations and many property owners face looming debt maturities that they struggle to refinance, all amid an unprecedentedly fast jump in the Federal Reserve’s key interest rate and now a potential bank credit crunch.
Already, Brookfield Corp. and Pacific Investment Management Co. have defaulted on office mortgages in recent months, and there’s a looming wall of around $180 billion of office mortgages coming due in 2023.

==================================================================== 

California signals the hyper-inflation train may be ready to leave the station:

While the state grows about half of all the fruit and vegetables for the country, there are concerns that higher prices could hit next month and continue through the summer.

"For the farms that were flooded, this catastrophe hit at the worst possible time," said California’s Strawberry Commission President Rick Tomlinson in a statement. "Farmers had borrowed money to prepare the fields and were weeks away from beginning to harvest."

Even fields not underwater are a challenge to get to, Groot said. Floodwater wiped out roads and bridges making acres and acres unreachable by farm machinery. And farmworkers have been dispersed because so many lost their homes to flooding. 

reported by Hillary Andrews , yahoo!News via FOX News Weather

=========================================================================

 While food and energy prices have declined from their sharply elevated levels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, they remain higher than before the war, eroding people’s income and demand for imported goods.”

 

“Yet, while prices have fallen in international markets, they have frequently remained high at local level, particularly in net food importing developing countries reflecting the weakening of their currencies against the US dollar. As a result, food price inflation is still a serious concern in many countries, also because post-farm gate costs for shipping and processing remain subject to inflationary pressures.”

 reported by By Keith Good, FarmDoc via AMIS , AgFax.com
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 Layoffs in the Tech sector are over and the fallout boosted the stock price levels of all who announced their cost cutting strategies. The economy did not suffer from these calls, as demand for workers remain high and the balance sheets of workers continue to stay strong. As college grads and summer worker come online expect hiring to increase, with retirements draining the SSI trust funds.

REITs and commercial entities continue to pressure bank earnings and real estate pricing.

SHORTS: All REITs with East Coast & West Coast exposure; Regional Banks with East Coast & West Coast exposure; Energy gasoline service stocks Mobil/Exxon and others until August 2023.

LONGS: 

 

 

 

1st Quarter 2023: Inflation starts packing its bag and walking back home ,but can't find a ride, while China jets to the Casinos

 Olde Business: 

Employment numbers in the USA stay strong, 
October: the American economy added 261,000 jobs in the month of October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5%, continuing to remain near historic lows
November: the American economy added 263,000 jobs in the month of November, and the unemployment rate remained close to a historic low mark at 3.7%
December: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in December, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 

CPI Inflation 2022/2023

October: 7.7 percent
November: 7.1 percent
December 2022: 6.5 percentJanuary 2023:   ?? percent  Feb 14 2023 update

                        1st                        2nd                        3rd                        4th

Nasdaq 100   -9.6                        -22.7                     -3.9                        -1.8

S&P 500        -5.2                        -16.6                     -5.2                        +6.4

DJIA              -4.5                        -11.4                     -6.5                        +14.9

                              Dec 2022         Sept 2022          April 2022         Jan 2022

WTI Crude            79 USD             79 USD         98 USD              76 USD    
Natural Gas           6.70 USD          6.61 USD      6.30 USD           3.82 USD

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Winter weather has been slow to develop in Europe, leading to reduced needs of Oil and Gas, the USA has winter weather on the West Coast and reducing Gas demand with the Oil Industry reaping profits of stable demand and near $80 / barrel break-even pricing.

Layoffs in the Tech sector are building up steam, as the Elites try to pump their stocks Pre-Earnings season, but Fed Reserve rate increases are still on tap ahead. Some see the recession risk rising as employment stays strong and labor scrambling to fill vacancies , as Small Businesses try to capture the escaping revenues going past their front doors. Services sector still needs thousands of employees to delivery the demand seen since the Summer of 2022 and its 'escape from CoVid-19' march took place.

 =================================================================

New Business:

AI is gaining speed as ChatGPT shows off its power & problems in a human world:

[[Chatsonic is not bound by the same limitations that plague ChatGPT. “ChatGPT is limited by the inputs or training data that cannot be updated so frequently. Whereas, Chatsonic is an advanced and powerful version that is able to keep up with current events, giving it an advantage in terms of accuracy and reliability,” according to Writesonic, the website behind Chatsonic.

OpenAI claimed that ChatGPT is not connected to the internet and it can occasionally produce incorrect answers. Exposure to harmful content on the web could influence the chatbot’s behaviour. Since Chatsonic is exposed to the internet, there is a possibility that biases could creep into some of the results it generates.

When OpenAI made ChatGPT open for all, one of the most popular consensus among users was that it could replace ‘Google Search’. 

Many believe that if ChatGPT is allowed to connect to the internet, it could be what ultimately kills Google Search. Some even labelled ChatGPT as the ‘Google
Killer.’]] BY PRITAM BORDOLOI courtesy of https://analyticsindiamag.com/

------------------------------------------------------------------                             Dividends News  2023
Increasing accumulation of AT&T , Seagate, Walgreens Boot Alliance, and 5% Oil Patch Services Companies

                                                  Inflation will tick up and up and up
Expect the La Nina weather pattern to cause farming havoc around the world. As California crops become inundated with water, not drought, and Australia/New Zealand go thru flooding events prices will continue to rise. Commodities like meat and grain will also participate in the rally as 'Cause n Effect'  issues of climate change wreak havoc on the globe. Oil and minerals face an increase in pricing as
war and border disputes disrupt the flow and supply in  late spring.

.

4th Quarter: The Start of the Reprice of the Economies into the Cold Winter Ahead

 Olde Business:

U.S. Markets continue their ''pump and dump'' gyrations over the course of Fed Reserve rate increases.

July 2022  S&P 500 3860 pts
Aug 2022 S&P 500  4305 pts

Oct  2022 S&P 500  3577 pts

Nov 2022 S&P 500  3960 pts

Expect more swings as the liquidity is drained from the ''punch bowl'' and the part-goers come to their senses.

(S&P 500 ~3100 pts)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oil is held captive by USA reserve releases, but for not much longer. Europe and other Asian consuming nations will face above $100 USD/barrel oil as Russia and OPEC collude to add to their balance sheets as the world rushes into Clean Energy.

                              Sept 2022        July 2022       June 2022        April 2022         Jan 2022

WTI Crude            79 USD         93 USD        110 USD           98 USD              76 USD    
Natural Gas           6.61 USD      6.71 USD       6.51 USD        6.30 USD           3.82 USD

=====================================================================================

China, the WOKE, the anger giant, continues on a course of DIMINISHING GDP numbers back to pre-Tiananmen Square days of yore.
China’s GDP

 
+3.9% Q3 2022, and the

+0.4% in Q2 2022, and the

 
+4.8% in Q1 2022, and the

+4% in Q4 2021, and the 

+4.9% in Q3 2021, and the

+7.9% in Q2 2021, and the

+18.3% in Q1 2021. 

=====================================================================================

INFLATION print for Sept 2022, 7.5%, and food is still climbing , while oil has taken a breather until Thanksgiving Day. In October 2022, the USA announces 15 million barrels release from reserves , after 180 million barrels in March 2022. The U.S. government proposes to restock the strategic reserve when oil prices are at or lower than $67 to $72 a barrel. (WTI Oct. 19 2022: $83)

Food prices continue to climb higher, WHEAT the important indicator of

production is not primed for the coming season. China is having problems

 across the globe.

INFLATION is coming, and its looking for a Place to Visit.

=====================================================================================

New Business:

Mr Robot quote: ''We live in a kingdom of bullshit, A kingdom you've lived in for far too long'', so right now stay the buying ACCUMULATION course of market investment.

High Yield ETF             PEY

San Juan Royalty Trust  SJT

Walgrens Boot Alliance WBA

US Natural Gas              UNL

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Democracy and Morals are under attack, as the evil lurks into the souls of man.

So Elections around the USA point to a Republican takeover of the House of Representatives and

a possible stalemate in the Senate.

Republicans hold the line on party , and ditch the morals of society and man.

Democrats have no party line, but the ''throw money at it solution'' talk.

Will Women's Right or Will the Inflation be the deciding factor come Election Day ?

Answer, the younger generation spoke, Women's Right!

3rd Quarter 2022: Inflation is Partying at the Resorts and China has Zero-CoVid-19 setbacks

 Olde Business:

Dividensds are suffering the bad fate of falling share prices, as the Re-Adjustment of market valuations takes place

2nd Leg Shorts of Real Estate players, looking at  are feeling the kitchen fire , as the Front Steps Auctions start their shake outs.{3 month performances}

ZG,         -27%

BLND,    -44%

PHM,      +3.8%-

OPAD,    -57%

TOL       +3.1%

The mandated release of vaccine data has not produced the UPROAR in the newsfeed, as expected. Looking for massive consumer feedback after FULL DISCLOSURE, that DID NOT materialize.{3 month performance}

MRNA-Moderna                        -1.9%

PFE-Pfizer                                  -3.5%

JNJ -Johnson & Johnson,         -2.7% 

NVAX- Novavax                         -14.2%

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Gold FINALLY falls below $1,700 as it shows some DIVERGENCE with predicted norms of a world with High Inflation, War and a Pandemic.

ARK Funds are back in shorting play: ARKK,ARKF.ARKW

                             July 2022       June 2022        April 2022         Jan 2022
WTI Crude             93 USD        110 USD           98 USD              76 USD    
Natural Gas           6.71 USD       6.51 USD        6.30 USD           3.82 USD

Consumer credit is decreasing and Consumer debt has leveled off over the 2nd quarter.

INFLATION is coming, and its coming for You.

=====================================================================================

China, the WOKE, the anger giant, continues on a course of DIMINISHING GDP numbers back to pre-Tiananmen Square days of yore.
China’s GDP

 
+4.8% in Q1 2022, and the

+4% in Q4 2021, and the 

+4.9% in Q3 2021, and the

+7.9% in Q2 2021, and the

+18.3% in Q1 2021. 

''China continues to enforce a “Zero-COVID” policy starting from January 2022, whereby small outbreaks are met with extremely intense city- and province-wide lockdowns.
At the peak of the recent COVID outbreak and subsequent lockdowns throughout China, it was estimated that 46 separate cities and provinces, impacting 300 million people and representing nearly 80% of China’s economic output were shut in and shut down, essentially halting the world’s second-largest economy.
     First, as COVID cases declined, the Chinese economy started to reopen, and by the end of May 2022, the port of Shanghai was operating at 80% capacity, a material improvement from earlier in the month.''

[couresy of https://www.finsyn.com/2nd-quarter-2022-market-review-and-commentary/ ]

Currently the BA.5 lineage of the B.1.1.529, the Omnicron strain in roaring across the globe, leading China to retrace some of its steps, in re-opening.

    

INFLATION is taking in the VENUES, buying the TOURIST TRAP trinkets, dining at the BARS & RESTAURANTS and having a JOLLY GOOD TIME

Supply Chain imbalances due to closed economies, stuck Large Ships, PPE shortages over other manufacturing needs, containers at one end with shippers at the other end of the world, and labor TAKE THIS JOB and SHOVE IT! events,  let Mr & Mrs INFLATION go for a VACATION, Around-the-World.

              Not knowing the length of this vacation is a problem, that lies with TWO THINGS:

              Sars-CoV2 variants

                      and

              Russian Invasion into Ukraine,
              (not a War, when other side can not effectively fight back , from the start).

INFLATION is coming, and its looking for a Place to Visit.

=====================================================================================

New Business:

Mr Robot quote: ''Exciting time in the world right now, exciting time.'' meaning WHO KNOWS, but right now get out of BTC/ETH coins as we approach the MERGE.

on the other end

Mr Robot quote: ''We live in a kingdom of bullshit, A kingdom you've lived in for far too long'', so right now stay the SHORTING course of market investment.

Microstrategy          MSTR

Coinbase                 COIN

Silvergate Capital   SI

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Democracy and Morals are under attack, as the evil lurks into the souls of man.

As incidents of violence in the USA increase and the killing of former PM of Japan, Shinzo Abe

we face an inflection point in the transition of man, as the singularity nears

( https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2022/06/google-engineer-claims-ai-system-has-developed-feelings/ )

and hopelessness spreads across the globe

( https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2022/06/google-engineer-claims-ai-system-has-developed-feelings/ )

( https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2022/jun/25/abortion-rights-protest-roe-v-wade-us-in-pictures )

 

for one's survival among the Sins of Man