Monday, February 6, 2023

1st Quarter 2023: Inflation starts packing its bag and walking back home ,but can't find a ride, while China jets to the Casinos

 Olde Business: 

Employment numbers in the USA stay strong, 
October: the American economy added 261,000 jobs in the month of October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5%, continuing to remain near historic lows
November: the American economy added 263,000 jobs in the month of November, and the unemployment rate remained close to a historic low mark at 3.7%
December: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in December, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 

CPI Inflation 2022/2023

October: 7.7 percent
November: 7.1 percent
December 2022: 6.5 percentJanuary 2023:   ?? percent  Feb 14 2023 update

                        1st                        2nd                        3rd                        4th

Nasdaq 100   -9.6                        -22.7                     -3.9                        -1.8

S&P 500        -5.2                        -16.6                     -5.2                        +6.4

DJIA              -4.5                        -11.4                     -6.5                        +14.9


                              Dec 2022         Sept 2022          April 2022         Jan 2022

WTI Crude            79 USD             79 USD         98 USD              76 USD    
Natural Gas           6.70 USD          6.61 USD      6.30 USD           3.82 USD

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Winter weather has been slow to develop in Europe, leading to reduced needs of Oil and Gas, the USA has winter weather on the West Coast and reducing Gas demand with the Oil Industry reaping profits of stable demand and near $80 / barrel break-even pricing.

Layoffs in the Tech sector are building up steam, as the Elites try to pump their stocks Pre-Earnings season, but Fed Reserve rate increases are still on tap ahead. Some see the recession risk rising as employment stays strong and labor scrambling to fill vacancies , as Small Businesses try to capture the escaping revenues going past their front doors. Services sector still needs thousands of employees to delivery the demand seen since the Summer of 2022 and its 'escape from CoVid-19' march took place.






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New Business:

AI is gaining speed as ChatGPT shows off its power & problems in a human world:

[[Chatsonic is not bound by the same limitations that plague ChatGPT. “ChatGPT is limited by the inputs or training data that cannot be updated so frequently. Whereas, Chatsonic is an advanced and powerful version that is able to keep up with current events, giving it an advantage in terms of accuracy and reliability,” according to Writesonic, the website behind Chatsonic.

OpenAI claimed that ChatGPT is not connected to the internet and it can occasionally produce incorrect answers. Exposure to harmful content on the web could influence the chatbot’s behaviour. Since Chatsonic is exposed to the internet, there is a possibility that biases could creep into some of the results it generates.

When OpenAI made ChatGPT open for all, one of the most popular consensus among users was that it could replace ‘Google Search’. 

Many believe that if ChatGPT is allowed to connect to the internet, it could be what ultimately kills Google Search. Some even labelled ChatGPT as the ‘Google
Killer.’
]]  courtesy of https://analyticsindiamag.com/

------------------------------------------------------------------                             Dividends News  2023
Increasing accumulation of AT&T , Seagate, Walgreens Boot Alliance, and 5% Oil Patch Services Companies

                                                  Inflation will tick up and up and up
Expect the La Nina weather pattern to cause farming havoc around the world. As California crops become inundated with water, not drought, and Australia/New Zealand go thru flooding events prices will continue to rise. Commodities like meat and grain will also participate in the rally as 'Cause n Effect' 
issues of climate change wreak havoc on the globe. Oil and minerals face an increase in pricing as
war and border disputes disrupt the flow and supply in  late spring.

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