3rd Quarter 2020: FEDMEDS are pushed again to Lobbyist/Financial Groups

  As territories close down/re-trench , the FEDs have slowed down their Balance Sheets slowly, and the 2nd round of PPP loans have been FINALLY offered to 'real' Small Businesses.





Continued shorting of the KBRE KBW index
The Airline industry continues to circle the airport at reduced stacking levels every 20 days as the small uptick in travel is rethinked for closer, more secure, car travel destinations. The outlook for a reversal in an uptick is increasing as California, Texas, and Florida take steps to heal their hemmoraging patients on the operating room table. West coast , Cental and Southeast coast travel are very crucial to this industry for revenue.

July 7 2020
“Last week, the Treasury Department announced that American Airlines, Frontier Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, Sky West Airlines, and Spirit Airlines have signed letters of intent setting out the terms on which Treasury is prepared to extend loans under the CARES Act.  We welcome the news that Alaska Airlines, Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines have now also signed letters of intent. 

 It requires borrowers to provide warrants, equity interests, or senior debt instruments as appropriate taxpayer compensation.  Participating borrowers must also commit to certain requirements under the CARES Act to maintain employment levels and limit employee compensation, dividends, and share repurchases.

In other Developments
 Upheavel at Medicare and Social Security, as the accountant's tool for measurment rises 15% in one year. Meaning a runaway train is gaining speed as it heads into the train station. What is need is an administration with a mandate to protect the system w/o regard for political and its lobbyist ramifications.

Results were mainly due to :
       The excise tax on high-cost, employer-sponsored group health plans (commonly referred to as the Cadillac tax) was repealed. 
     
        The Trustees changed several of their long-run assumptions in light of new analysis and data:  
          The total fertility rate was reduced from 2.0 to 1.95 births per woman.
          Consumer price inflation was reduced from 2.6 to 2.4 percent. 
          The real interest rate was reduced from 2.5 to 2.3 percent. 
          The disability incidence rate was reduced from 5.2 to 5.0 per 1000 covered workers.

The 75-year (2020-2094) actuarial deficit of the Social Security trust funds increased from 2.78 to 3.21 percent of taxable payroll since the 2019 reports. The 75-year actuarial balance is a summary measure that calculates the difference between the projected income and the projected costs of the trust funds as a percentage of taxable payroll.

4th Quarter 2020: October 2020 surprise to wipe the data clean and format the New Deal acceptable to the Masses

 Waited a long while to let the dogs of summer ravage the mindset of the Pigs at the Trough. This upside DOWN world of greed and vice has reach its tipping point. 

Analyst , CEOs, Market Makers, and Credit Agencies are set to burn in the dirty oily slime of their souls.

As the magic of rising stock prices among the decreasing revenue streams and employee counts mounted, the Demons of Wall Street pillaged the pensions and 401k of America.

Well the piper has come to direct  the scum to the sewers and the darkness of the void.

In the past 4 months precious metals has been in play and rewarded its holders. As the October surprise sweeps thru the world, Insurers the world over will be under tremendous pressure.

Shorting for 50% drops across the board

AIG    American International Group

EQH   AXA Equitable Holdings

MET  MetLife

 ALL  Allstate Insurance Group

PGR  Progressive Insurance Group

TRV Travelers Group

Convert long stocks to cash, look into BTC and others for 40 percent cash reserves as the storm sweeps into February 2021.

Update on SHORTS KBWR & KRE

KBWR up 15% 

KRE up 22% 

No summer doldrums, hefty fines, increasing delinquencies or cash hoarding to stop the corporate overlords from filling their guts, but seeing the cancer growing anew and will ride this boat down to 60%, a 80% turnaround.

2nd Quarter 2020: Age of Reason: Mr. Robot (USA Networks) plays out in Real Time update 1/6 time 04/18/2020

Hello Friend

          A world pushed to the brink of chaos, dismay, and greed. 

We are nearing the Beginning of the End......., the End of Globalization??,

 if I may say.

         Everything that was in reach, that right on time logistical chain supply mechanism, has been shown for the illusion that we created. 

        Supply side economics became the Demand side economy over-nite. As the CoVid-19 virus adds to the distancing of People, States, Countries, Governments and Politics we will move to a New Era of Individualism.

         Reliance of Others, will become the reliance of Self. Self sufficiency for food, health, work and security will grow outward as the illusion of control falls from the glass ceilings of the ivory towers, that the masses were enslaved under.

         Rise up People of the World, the Age of Reason is once again upon us, Upload to the masses for their consumption.

        We accomplished some of the objectives handed to us. Early February we sold a high majority of our holdings, played some the cards given and picked up others to hold a solid hand in this poker match.

 Bought:  ▲-making $$$, ▼-losing $$$

VIIX(added) Volatility index▲,  STX(added) Seagate Technology storage drives▲,
AHPI Applied Healthcare medical products ▲, KRMD Medical systems ▲ ,  LH Labcorp diagnostics▲,  

        DGX Quest Diagnostics▲,  TNK(added) Tanker Shipping ▲, CODX  medical diagnostics ▲   and REKR(added) license plate reader▲

Shorts: 

RCL Royal cruise ▲, PLNT Planet fitness▲, USPH(tough baby) Physical therapy▼,
TSLA (squeezed)car manufacturer▼, UBER car ride service▲, LYFT car ride service▲,W(tough baby/boycott) online furniture▼, XLE Energy fund ▲, DNK China RE fund▲,
KORU South Korea fund ▲, IYT Transportation fund ▲, JETS Global Jet fund ▲,XTN S&P Transport Fund ▲, KBWR (adding more)Regional Bank Fund ▲, KRE (adding more)Regional Bank Fund ▲

Coming Additions 
ZG - Zillow Shorts due to busted home buying strategy
RDFN (not added yet to cash flow/ shorts being squeeze)- Redfin shorts due to busted home buying strategy

BKCC (waiting on a major meeting)- Overseer of Bail Outs
FMCC (adding very soon )- Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae on the look out as banking is stressed.

Update 04/18/2020  

Elon Musk and cohorts busted up short sellers (me too= -$1.5k)
but I and others know time is on our side. As the earnings season IMPLODES
upon us we will see the REMNANTS of the debris. 

Elon Musks's companies have had failed space rocket missions, exploding batteries,                      factory closings, product inconsistencies and
lastly an inflated STOCK PRICE, based on ???? , what,  please let me know, please.                           I love watching on Youtube Rich Rebuilds                                                           ( https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfV0_wbjG8KJADuZT2ct4SA ).

Carefully watching dividend/bond/treasury funds  DHY, PEY, DHF, WIW, WIA


The Destination is You

1st Quarter Update David Haggith Speaks

SHOUT TO TO Mr. David Haggith Contarian

The bull died Wednesday just as the Fed cranked up the voltage on its repo-QE defibrillator for the second time in just one week.

In giving the bull a postmortem, market morticians did not turn as readily to the coronavirus diagnosis as I thought.

Perhaps it can be said that the Bull grew fat on FedFood and died of an overdose of FedMed intended to save its heart from myocardial infarction due to morbid obesity.

(Well, it will find new medicine, but let's just say it's old ammo ain't hunting' bear no more. That's for sure. As David Stockman has been saying, the Fed is clearly out of dry powder.)


And we're just getting started! Trump's own stock market! Now that's just, shall we say to be nice, "Fouled Up BEyond All Recognition.''

1st Quarter 2020 Update The Storm waters continue to Rise

Update 01/08/2020  US and Iran playing chicken, while North Korea & Russia  wait for their moment of glory.
Update 03/09/2020 North Korea flexing muscle, Iran standing tall (even with Convid-19) keeping Testing non-existent

Present SHORTS

Symbol	Name	Last	Change	%Chg	Market Val	Total Chg	Total %Chg
XTN	S&P Transportation SPDR	47.34	-4.43	-8.56%	-2367	-15.71	-24.92%
JETS	US Global Jets ETF	20.44	-1.49	-6.79%	-2044	-11.06	-35.11%
IYT	Transportation Average Ishares ETF	145.52	-15.61	-9.69%	-1455.2	-44.79	-23.54%
KORU	Direxion South Korea Bull 3X	14.45	-2.93	-16.86%	-1445	-3.24	-18.32%
UBER	Uber Technologies Inc	28.17	-3.51	-11.08%	-1408.5	-3.83	-11.97%
LYFT	Lyft Inc Cl A	32.81	-3.21	-8.91%	-1640.5	-3.65	-10.01%
DNK	Phoenix Tree Holdings Ltd.	11.17	-0.51	-4.37%	-558.5	-0.13	-1.15%

1st Quarter 2020 Political Stalmate Part 1

Capitol Hill: Laws are Meant to be Broken, There's nothing like a Washington DC Trial

David Haggith

Contrarian

''No, nothing irrational here folks. No irrational exuberance anywhere! After all, how can things be irrational when everyone shares the same delusion? That makes the delusion the new normal. And I'm the oddball who says the emperor is not only naked, but also he has no skin! He is a zombie who is only surviving by eating his own flesh.''

Back to the Markets

Marijuana is UP in Smoke. I don't see a turn around any time in 2020.

Nonfarm payrolls in the US for the last quarter were stable, wage growth has slowed back to low levels. States have basically increased their minimum wage payroll laws.

Precious metals are still a buy: SVM , KGC, SBGL  and IMPUY

Silver is a new play, Palladium continues to be in demand 

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac slowly picking up steam as deadlines approach, accumulation territory now.

Returning back to down and out, out of favor European Bank stocks: I like Greece again and other eurobanks as history cycles itself.

Update 01/08/2020  US and Iran playing chicken, while North Korea & Russia  wait for their moment of glory.

1st Quarter 2020 Update will adjust as situation Arises

The Emperor and the Economy have No Clothes

Question on Quora: Should I buy Treasury Bonds now?
Yes, for the next two months, March and April. As a TON of debt issues come due from all over worldwide, not just from the USA, there has been a scramble to get liquidity to hide the truth.
From the FedMeds to Trade War to CoronaVirus - the markets are prime for the reckoning it
justly deserves.

David Haggith

Contrarian

There is the key. Market valuations, as I have been pointing out far longer than Citi, were stretched far beyond what our tenuous global economy or business statistics merit. That leaves a market that has lot of potential room to fall. On top of that, central banks have already used up most of their pharmacy. They don't have a lot of medicine left to use that hasn't already passed its sell-by date.
It is the senseless things of this world that sometimes knock sense into the high and mighty whose hubris causes them to believe they cannot fall. In this case, the tiny COVID-19 virus (coronavirus) is bringing down a global house of cards long perched to fall - locks, stocks, and barrels of oil.


My Movements
As I talk to CVS managers and Auto part managers, watching Shiptracking.com movements, and listening to West Coast port talk , the Writing Is On The Wall!

Shorts since mid Feb
JETS
IYT
XTN
KORU
DIA since 2018 at 198 off by 40% 

Starting in March
DNK